October 25^th, 1951, Chini Tehsil, Kinnaur District, Himachal Pradesh:

India’s tryst with democracy began in this small, beautiful, village of Chini in Himachal Pradesh, for this is where the first votes were cast in independent India’s 1^st general elections on 25^th October 1951. The first general elections were not just to elect parliamentarians to govern the republic of India but also to elect state assemblies. A total of 171747300 registered voters were eligible to vote in these elections, but only 15% of them were literate, so each party/candidate was allotted a symbol in order to help the illiterate participate in the process of democracy. The first general elections were a long drawn out affair and lasted a full four months before they were completed on 21^st February 1952. After this long process, the Congress party emerged victorious with a tally of 364 parliamentary seats in a house of 489, while also winning in all the state assemblies.

Since that eventful day in 1951, India has seen tens of hundreds of elections in the last 65 years and the festival of democracy has been a resounding success, despite of individual failures. Right from 1951, electoral politics has been a headline creating event, with the newspapers, radio, television and all other forms of media covering the events thoroughly. In the initial decades when long drawn out elections were the norm, print media analysis and election bulletins on All India Radio – Akashvani, were the most sought after mass mediums for election related news and information. Then in 1984, the state run Doordarshan, the only television channel of that era, for the first time broadcast live election coverage and analysis, giving birth to the carrier of Prannoy Roy, a trained psephologist – who correctly predicted the landslide for the Congress party in 1984.

Over the years as the number of television channels and print publications multiplied, election coverage and analysis has emerged as a big business in the post liberalization era. The mushrooming of various Television News Channels, Newspapers & Magazines of both the print and online kind haven’t really made the big difference that they should have possibly made to the Delhi-centric, left-liberal narrative of India’s electoral analysis & coverage. Even a cursory comparison with the pre-liberalization era and the present day scenario, in terms of mainstream Indian media, gives us just an additional number of personalities rather than viewpoints. They have simply multiplied in numbers and adapted newer platforms without changing either the content or the narrative.

In the last decade or so, “paid news” has infested India’s body politic as a disease, especially in terms of electoral politics during elections. It is a well-known fact that media houses get paid by political parties and candidates for favourable election coverage. Neutrality, the hallmark of the fourth estate, has been compromised and there is a large vacuum in India as far as election coverage and analysis is concerned.

It is in this milieu, that after more than 60 years when those first votes were cast in India’s first general elections in 1951 in the Chini Tehsil of Himachal Pradesh, that CRI has decided to step into that vacuum – incidentally, Himachal Pradesh is once again facing an election at the fag-end of 2012 and ECRI will begin its election coverage with the hill state. ECRI is an endeavour to give the most comprehensive election analysis on this side of the Atlantic, by liberating electoral politics from the elite left-libbers and delivering it to common netizens; this is true democracy unfolding on a computer or mobile device near you. ECRI requests community participation from all readers in analysing elections; there would be a district specific analysis of elections and reader/user contribution would be at the heart of this enterprise.

(Image Courtesy – http://indiacurrentaffairs.org/)

The Game of Sixes – Six Months & Six Factors

Atmospherics alone can acquire political mass over a period of time to influence the shape of future political course. Yet there are quite a few “real” factors too in the present political muddle of India that can independently and in tandem force an election in the very near future.

1. It’s the economy silly: With Indian economy collapsing on its own weight of social spending and fiscal imprudence, there is an increasing restlessness amongst various large business houses of India who are fed up with the UPA. Benefits from crony capitalism can only go thus far and no further; take the case of top 20 business houses of India and the one visible change is in their market cap, all of them have lost market capitalization in the range of 8 to 65% in the last 4-5 years. Market cap to GDP ratio grew exponentially between 2002-03 & 2007-08 from a modest 23% to a grand 109%, since then it has been very sluggish and in the last 6 months it has even fallen below 100% and to sub-trillion dollar levels. With most political activity being funded by business houses in India, it was just a matter of time before they would all come together to finance the collapse of UPA.
2. UPA allies from UP to Bengal: Both Mulayam & Mamata, the two key allies of UPA2, know that they are racing against time. Every passing month from now on could mean a drop of 1 percentage point in vote-share for them in their states. It is quite clear even to the simplest of political observers that the sooner the LS elections are held, the better their tally would be in the parliament and consequently higher their influence in government formation and policy regulations. This is of course far truer in case of the ageing samajwadi from UP than the irascible didi from Bengal. Contrary to popular perceptions, even Mayawati, another UPA ally and a SP rival in UP, could be raring to have a go at the elections for there is a great amount of polarization in her state and the goondaraj of Akhilesh might actually benefit her electorally.
3. Opposition forces to benefit: Every major opposition party in India stand to benefit in the ensuing LS elections, right from J Jayalalita and Naveen Patnaik to Achyutananda and Jagan Reddy. Even minor regional players, who had little hope just 6 months ago, now see a better prospect in the electoral battle; TDP, TRS, INLD, AGP, MNS etc. Thus a combined opposition force is realising that it is in their joint interests to face a poll sooner rather than at UPA’s convenience.
4. Internal NDA/BJP dynamics: It is undeniable that there are elements within the BJP and the larger parivaar who sense a great opportunity to go to polls now and enjoy a victory by default, without really having to work hard for it. This sense is shared by almost the entire NDA. To add to the milieu is of course the leadership factor. If elections are held within the next 6 months; either along with the Gujarat assembly elections or immediately following that; then Narendra Modi could be virtually ruled out as the NDA prime-ministerial candidate for all practical purposes.
5. The anti-corruption movements: Political pundits know that the anti-corruption mass movements in India have peaked and despite the BRD success show in bringing Delhi to its knees, it is a well-known fact that these are clearly going to fetch diminishing returns in the coming years. This also is the main reason why the opposition is making a big hue and cry about the “Coalgate” scam, for they sense that this is their last opportunity to make corruption an electoral issue. After a new report every other day involving mammoth figures of lakhs of crores of rupees, it is but natural that people will become numb to these corruption numbers. One Bofors scandal is sensational, but a Bofors a month is nothing but a statistic. It is now or never for the anti-congress forces to make corruption an issue of electoral consequences
6. The imminent death of judicial activism: There is an expiry date for all the Supreme Court interventions and observations against the UPA government and it reads “September 29^th 2012″. Even before that expiry date, PC has been given a great reprieve through what is widely accepted as a “bad judgement”; just imagine what would be the plight of judicial activism post the expiry-date scenario. India’s judiciary system is preparing itself for a revisit of the KGB days and before everything goes upside down to favour the ruling establishment, it is of paramount importance to go to polls and salvage the situation, opposition forces feel.

The tale of two opinion polls

To be fair, Living Media & India Today group in collaboration with AC Nielsen have been conducting a biannual/annual mood of the nation survey for many years now, so their latest bout of electoral crystal-ball gazing has not exactly come out of the blue. On the other hand NDTV, which was India’s original Television psephology evangelist, has had a scratchy record in the post-liberalisation era. Interestingly, there is also a battle for the market research pie in India which is being fought between Nielsen (India Today partner) & Ipsos (NDTV partner) that could well have a bearing on their reputations while they judge the mood of the nation. Let us analyse both the polls and look at various parameters to get a clearer picture by reading between the lines.

The Divergence

Since both the polls claim that they were conducted before the Assam troubles began, let us assume that they were conducted during the same period of time. Yet there are some glaring differences that can simply punch gaping holes into each other’s findings.

Issues: Price rise is at the top of the heap with a 53% rating in the India Today-AC Nielsen survey, where as it is at the bottom in the NDTV-Ipsos exercise; with no percentage points indicated (this opaque closed box approach is the defining feature of the entire NDTV poll, which makes it difficult to believe at times). Now this is absolutely humungous; either NDTV & India Today have done their surveys in two different countries or they have managed to interview completely antithetic set of people with diametrically opposite opinions in the same demographic & geographic conditions on similar timeframes (a statistical impossibility?).

Prime Ministerial Choice: The one aspect on which there seems to be an almost complete unanimity is that of the choice of Prime Ministership of India. But of course the NDTV-Ipsos survey conveniently forgot to present us with this one important finding of the popular choice for PM of India. Instead it went on to indulge in some useless data points on who is the Congress voters’ choice or the BJP voters’ choice etc., maybe it was too freighting for them to discover the popularity of NAMO (whether Synovate, which has been taken over by Ipsos last year, had anything to do with this is anybody’s guess, but it was widely speculated in the past that Synovate did have a working relationship with a couple of Delhi based consultancies who had alleged links with both RG & Robert). Every opinion poll, dip-test survey, online/SMS campaign is likely to come out with one unequivocal result these days (despite NDTV missing it completely), that of Modi being by far the most popular choice for the post of Prime Minister of India. The only other parallel, in the recent political history of India, of such Himalayan popularity is that of Vajpayee at his peak in the mid/late 90′s.

The Concurrence

Despite those glaring differences, thankfully both polls do concur broadly on a few basic truths. Mostly these basic elements are about Congress having lost a lot of ground and continuing to lose ground.

Congress is down and out: Congress party is not only losing nationally, but also in every state that it is in power. All Congress Chief Ministers and state governments are hugely unpopular; Sheila Dixit, B.S. Hooda, K.K Reddy, Ashok Gehlot etc. This kind of an overwhelming pan-national anti-Congress mood has been seen only once in the past, in 1975-77; and history was a mute spectator of how the opposition managed to throw away that golden chance, which should act as a detriment for any third-front type of formation occupying the governance space, lest Congress be given another chance later on.

Advantage BJP/Opposition: Trend line is clearly in favour of the BJP and the opposition, both nationally as well as in each of the states. Almost all BP/NDA and future NDA chief ministers are hugely popular. As Swapan da pointed out in the television debate on NDTV, this simply is a still photograph of the prevailing mood in the country and once the actual campaigning begins, this trend will only get stronger in favour of the BJP/NDA and a few opposition parties. Interestingly, the two non UPA parties who are unlikely to ever join NDA; SP & the Left; are also likely to underperform in the polls (Is that a message of Indian voter having decisively gone in favour of the right once again?).

Seat Projections

Ultimately the goal of any electoral crystal-ball gazing exercise of all kinds; opinion polls, mood of the nation surveys, political punditry or even armchair analysis; would be to project the likely outcome scenarios in terms of LS seats for each political party/formation/coalition.     Here again there seems to be a convergence of sorts in agreeing unanimously that BJP & NDA are ahead of the race over Congress & UPA, yet the underlying assertion amongst all the polls is that the next elections will likely produce a hung parliament and possibly a unstable coalition. This finding is contrarian to the behaviour of the Indian electorate. Over the last decade or so, the Indian voter has almost always tended to vote decisively in both assembly as well as national elections to usually favour the frontrunner. This decisive voting pattern in Indian elections is primarily because of a desire for stable governments and sustainable, unhindered governance. The reasons why most pollsters today are predicting a close race between Congress/UPA and BJP/NDA are more ideological and preferential rather than based on hard data, because the overwhelming mood of the nation is anti-Congress. The gap between BJP (NDA) & Congress (UPA) is likely to be around 50, as suggested by Minhaz Merchant in his very balanced analysis, rather than 20 or 30 as the two opinion poll numbers are throwing up. This gap will decide who will be heading the next government in Delhi.

The missing elements of poll charts

1. Since both the major polls were conducted before the events of Assam and the resulting incidents, they have both been unable to capture the extent of polarization in the country. Although the ABP News-AC Nielsen survey was conducted between August 22^nd & 24^th it has also only partially captured the Hindu-Muslim polarization reality, because it was a limited exercise in about 28 cities. Today, from Assam to UP to Mumbai to Bangalore, India is increasingly getting polarized along religious lines, which was only seen last time in the early 90′s at the height of the Ram Janam Bhoomi andolan and the eventual destruction of the Babri mosque. Hopefully this feature will be covered in any opinion poll in the near future
2. Another similarity between the 90′s and the present day scenario is the widespread Muslim disenchantment with the Congress party. In the 90′s this Muslim anger on Congress led to the rise of many “secular” regional parties, can the Muslim vote achieve a national Muslim coalition this time around? This is another aspect that most surveys seem to have missed
3. If one goes through these polls and surveys, the one striking feature that hits you in your face is the overwhelmingly “urban” nature of these exercises. If these surveys do give equal representation to rural voters (as they invariably claim), then it is impossible to miss the elephant in the room! How on earth can your fieldwork miss the overwhelming presence of drought in the villages of India? This author has in the very recent past demonstrated that drought is possibly the single biggest factor impacting electoral outcomes in India. To suggest that drought or associated conditions are not an issue that are impacting Indian voters is simply preposterous
   1. Delimitation: the process of Delimitation has adversely affected BJP electorally and has been a gainful tool for the Congress. Delimitation might still end up spoiling BJP’s party despite of all the helpful ground realities. Remember, till now, BJP on its own has lost every election in the post delimitation era, except for Karnataka – Bihar & Punjab have been coalitions, while Jharkhand has been a post-poll adjustment and Goa too small a state.

Epilogue: The electorally fascinating state of Uttar Pradesh has become a part of this tailpiece by default for the second week running. UP is always in a state of flux, the political currents that run through the veins of UP are so volatile that even a seasoned political observer is forced to catch his breath in trying to analyse the undercurrents. Almost all pollsters are predicting a minor revival for BJP in the state and a not-so-good seat tally for the SP, which had literally swept the assembly polls less than six months ago. Polarization had been an undercurrent in UP even during the assembly polls, it is just that the BJP did not even put up a fight in 40 odd seats where it could have done well (if deal makers are allowed power over ticket distribution in this important state, then the party’s fate won’t be any different even in the LS polls). This polarization potted-plant is now increasingly resembling a full grown tree under the nourishing care of the blatantly communal Samajwadi regime. These ground realities present BJP with a golden opportunity to come up with a decent performance, in fact, UP could well be the harbinger of BJP’s new rise in the national political stage. But there is already talk of a regrouping and realignment of Brahmins & Dalits against SP, which might favour the BSP, thus rendering another wasted opportunity into the BJP’s kitty.

[Side Note: Any opinion poll or nationwide survey that attempts to create a list of top movie stars of India, but fails to include Rajnikant in that list (to accommodate 4 Khans) is not only blatantly incompetent but also out rightly blasphemous. For starters, take a look at the box-office collections of his last all India release in Delhi-UP, CP-Berar-Rajasthan and East Punjab territories, those collections will put many mainstream Bollywood stars to shame]

Yh Shambara Parvateshu Kshiwantam Chatvaarishyam Saradhyanvaavindatah

                          Ojayamanaam yo Ahim Jagahaana Daanum Shayanam Sa Janaasa Indrah                 (RV.2.12.11)

 A hymn from Rig Veda that refers to the forty year battle between the great Dasyu King Shambara – who supposedly had 99 fortresses across Himachal – and the Arya devatas led by Indra represented in the form of King Divodasa. Apart from the typical Deva-Asura battle that is portrayed here, what is of significance is that by the time this forty year war began, the Ahis (aborigines) and Danavas, variously referred to as Dasyus, Nishaads or Daasas in the Vedic tradition (basically, proto-Australoid Dravidians) had combined forces to resist the advancing Aryans of Divodaas. Thereby lies the story of an ancient amalgamation of not only cultures but also the wisdom of economics.

Previously, when the Aryan migration started to move deeper, a section of the original inhabitants of the Gangetic planes started to move northwards into the Himalayan hilly regions to preserve their way of life. This race of people (proto-Australoids) were basically warrior pastoralists and had to maintain a precarious existence in the hilly terrain under the leadership of Khasas (later day Kshatriyas) who were an offshoot of Aryans. Over the years they evolved to inculcate transhumance pastoralism in order to subsist; a tradition that has survived many millennia to the present day tribes of Gaddis who also seasonally migrate from low altitudes to high altitudes. This practice continued for a few generations until these groups encountered the sedentary agricultural communities or the aborigines of the region, variously known as Kols-Kiratas. This great ancient interaction produced mutual inter-dependence of shifting cultivation and animal husbandry that evolved into a mixed strategy of viable livelihood in the Himalayan terrain. To fully realise the wisdom of simplicity of this ancient economic model one must visit the beautiful Spiti valley in Himachal Pradesh.

Present day, fields of Himachal Pradesh:

There is a major visible transformation in the landscape of the hill state, if one is visiting the state, say, after 4 or 5 years – in the form of mushrooming greenhouses/polyhouses in small tracts of lands adjoining the grain cultivations. The state government has started Pt. Deen Dayal Kisan-Bhagwan Samridhi Yojna, wherein the state government gives 80% subsidy for setting up modern day polyhouses to promote protected cultivation in a state with large amounts of rain (and snow) and adverse weather conditions. The state government has earmarked 353 Crore rupees for this scheme and has already set up more than 12000 polyhouses in 100 hectares of cultivable land on the slopes of Himachal Pradesh. Most farmers have small land holdings in the hill state and this scheme has been a boon for them. The transformation is most visible in the lower- and mid-hills of Bilaspur, Kangra, Mandi, Hamirpur, Sirmaur and Solan, which remained largely barren during winters, and where farmers, including educated youths, have embraced this new precision farming technique. In just 3 years, some of the high yielding exotic vegetables like Broccoli, red and yellow capsicum, cucumber etc. have brought returns to the tune of 25-30 Crore rupees per annum.

This agricultural modernization scheme symbolizes everything that is good about the BJP, credit must really be given to the state government for its visionary agronomic policy. While the Sonia Gandhi school of economics is busy destroying India’s rural economy and playing havoc with inflationary economics by giant dole schemes like MNREGS, this subsidy scheme is doing the exact opposite, for it encourages entrepreneurship in the rural economy rather than promoting socialist doles, it increases per square meter agricultural yield by practising precision farming techniques thereby diminishing inflationary pressures, it has the potential to stimulate floricultural and horticultural exports. Most importantly, it has transformed agricultural methodologies in Himachal after more than 5 millennia when the transhumance pastoralists learned sedentary agriculture. There is a Narendra Modi connection to this polyhouse subsidy scheme too, for the idea of greenhouse and polyhouse farming subsidy to transform agriculture, originated in Gujarat – looks like everything that is good about India today has a NAMO stamp on it.

The next challenge for the hill state is to convert itself into the flower basket of India by kick-starting the floricultural revolution in Himachal Pradesh, which has the right kind of weather and climatic conditions to grow various flowers. Globally, flower trade is a 15 Billion $ industry (2010) and is expected to touch the figure of 18-20 Billion dollars by 2015 with a CAGR of 8%; India accounts for an abysmal 0.65% of the global flower trade and stands at number 23. As a contrast, in 2010, China traded more than 4.7 billion flowers in the international markets and accounted for more than 200 million $ in exports, even a much poorer country like Kenya earned close to 300 million $ in the international flower market. In 2002, the then NDA government had set an aggressive target of 1000 Crore rupees for India’s floricultural exports by 2010, but India was able to achieve only about 332 Crore rupees in 2008-09 and the UPA government revised the target to 375 Crores last year. That is the problem with this Manmohan Singh government, not only does it suffer from policy paralysis but also it has got its priorities wrong.

                                *Data Sources: VBN, PT, BvGB (Netherlands)

Given the country’s  size and diverse geography and climate, India remains a potential giant in the floricultural field but infrastructural inadequacies coupled with lack of initiative from the growers has meant that the potential remains unrealized. Himachal has already taken the first step by inculcating precision farming techniques, now it has to concentrate on developing allied infrastructure like Cold storage facilities and adequate transportation management (it does have 3 operational airports) to facilitate floricultural exports. Professor Chandel in the agriculture university of Palampur says, “The two key factors in the international cut flower trade are volume and quality, we have failed in both these criterions as we neither have been able to build volumes nor are our quality levels consistent”. A typical example is of Retd. Col. Rana who had started polyhouse cultivating some three years ago in Solan, but is still concentrating on growing vegetables because he is weary of the domestic flower markets due to unpredictable price fluctuations and does not have the volumes to tap the international markets.

The one inherent problem with the Himachali floriculture industry is that it lacks scale to really be competent at the international markets – owing to the small land holdings. Take the case of the white Lily (Lilium Longiflorum) which is associated with Easter; every year during the Easter weekend close to 8 million Lilies (both bulbs as well as cut flowers and foliage) are traded in the east coast of the US alone and more than 25% of that quantity is imported from Holland, Columbia, Ecuador and other countries. The weather conditions in Himachal are best suited for growing Lilies, yet the export numbers from the hill state for the flower are nothing but zilch. To scale up the agronomy of Lilies, new business models based on community/cooperative polyhouse cultivation must be encouraged, that is the way forward for the state government to formulate policies. At least for this one reason the Prem Kumar Dhumal government deserves to be re-elected, so that Himachal can join the global flower markets.

*Annually imports account for 68% of fresh flowers sold by dollar volume in the United States (data source: USDA 2010).

Elections won’t be won just by a visionary floricultural initiative, the government must perform on various other governance parameters to stand a chance in the people’s court. The P.K. Dhumal government’s report card is a mixed bag of sorts and that gives Congress a fighting chance to repeat the hill state’s electoral history. Let us take the base criteria of BSPH –Bijlee, Sadak, Paani and healthcare – to measure the government’s performance;

1.       Surface transport: The road networks in the hill state have been historically decent – Vir Bhadra Singh needs to be given credit for this – and the present government has carried forward that legacy. What the state needs is rail connectivity (a central government subject), 65 years after the British exited from India, the hill state is still running on meter-gauge rail systems left behind by the raj, while China has connected Lhasa (the capital of Tibet which is at a much higher altitude) with high speed rail networks. This is a side-effect of the Bihar-Bengal monopoly over the rail ministry for almost 2 decades. Grade: Status quo to slightly positive – 2.5/5

 2.       Power: Himachal is a significantly power surplus state and earns its second highest revenue stream from hydro-electric power. The present government has taken some decent initiatives but needs to improve its marketing skills to sell the surplus power – for instance, the average selling price per unit has fallen from 7.50 in 2010-11 to 3.75 in 2011-12, despite of the fact that the whole of north India was suffering from a huge power shortage and Uttar Pradesh had to shut down malls and commercial establishments. Alternative, renewable energy sources like wind have a great potential in the hill state but the state government’s initiatives in that direction have been lacklustre. Grade: Slightly positive – 3/5

 3.       Water Resources: This could turn out to be the biggest crisis for the state. Despite abundant rainfall and various river streams that run through it, the state has failed to manage its water resources. Every town you visit, the one common complaint is lack of adequate water supply, so much so that many legislators are facing local level micro-anti-incumbency because of water problems. The state needs investments in water storage and supply facilities urgently and it is one account on which the BJP government has failed. Grade: Negative – 1/5

4.       Healthcare: PHCs have seen a great deal of improvement in the present regime; two significant developments are

1. Robust implementation of 108 ambulances which provide critical emergency care.
2. Free and improved care of the pregnant woman

The other aspect of the healthcare model in the state is that of veterinary health care due to the presence of a large number of cattle and sheep involved in the pastoral activities. The performance of the government on that count is not exemplary as there is some discontentment amongst the large work force of state veterinary doctors vis-à-vis the state government. Grade: Positive – 3.5/5

Among other criterion to judge the performance of the state, one significant segment that has seen some progress in the last few years is that of Industrialization. Baddi (Solan district) on the outskirts of Chandigarh has seen huge investments come into various sectors and is emerging as the medical & pharmaceutical hub of India – today there are 800 medical/pharma companies in Baddi, including giants like Cipla and Dabur – so much so that by 2015 almost 60% of Indian pharma industry would be concentrated in this industrial town. Baddi is also fast emerging as the new IT/services industry destination because of the initiatives of the BJP government like developing an IT park in 67 acres of land in Waknaghat with an investment of 500 Crore rupees. The state government has attracted 17253 Crore rupees of investment over the last 4 years, but one criticism about the state government’s industrial policy is that it has not been able to achieve significant levels of job creation for its populace, especially for the hill people. Grade: Positive – 4/5

The P.K. Dhumal led BJP government in the state of Himachal Pradesh has done a half decent job in most areas, yet it is not a standout performer by any means, for a great deal more could have been achieved which could have simply put the opposition Congress out of the electoral race in 2012 – like say in Gujarat. BJP can still go into the polls with a positive report card. Average Governance Quotient: 3/5

As we have seen in the previous two parts of this Himachal diary, apart from governance, there are a few other X factors in this bipolar battlefield of electoral chess game. One major factor that could influence the poll outcome is the lobby of a large number of government employees, who are going to play a crucial role again in 2012. Another major factor is the Congress party’s capacity to put up a credible alternative, especially former chief minister Vir Bhadra Singh’s ability to provide leadership in these testing times – he is being described as a wounded tiger by the local media and this could be his golden chance to strike back. Even though history is against Dhumal & BJP – due to the anti-incumbent nature of the state politics for close to three decades – one significant factor that cannot be underestimated in these polls is the anti-incumbency against the UPA government at the centre and the anti-Congress mood prevailing in the nation because of mega corruption scandals and economic mismanagement.

Price-rise and inflation are definitely decisive issues too, for Himachali families have tight budgetary allocations – like most villages and small towns in India. But there is a school of thought that believes that generally aam janata blames the state governments for inflation, although the blame squarely lies with economic mismanagement by the central government; it remains to be seen how the state BJP government manages to convince people about their relative innocence in committing inflationary crimes.

Another important tangible X factor that will have a huge impact on this year’s state polls is delimitation, which will probably effect both the parties but somehow one gets a sense from the ground that it would have a greater effect on BJP. Despite of the fact that the repercussions of delimitation are far lesser in the hill state than in states like UP, a vast number of constituencies have either totally disappeared or have substantially changed in nature. For instance, Kumarsain, the Vidya Stokes Constituency has been deleted from the electoral map of HP, much to the delight of Vir Bhadra Singh who had in 2007 put up an independent candidate (Pramod Sharma) as a Trojan to defeat Mrs Stokes (she eventually won by a narrow thousand vote margin and became the opposition leader in the assembly). Vir Bhadra has the capacity to hurt his opponents within the party by using his immense clout. On the other hand, in BJP, Dr Rajiv Bindal, a 3 time MLA from Solan, has lost his constituency because of reservation and there are many such cases all over the state cutting across party lines.

One principal case study from the BJP, that not only highlights delimitation but also brings out the fault-lines within the party to the fore along with a local level anti-incumbency twist, is that of Thakur Ravinder Singh Ravi – de-facto deputy chief minister and number two in the Dhumal cabinet. Ravi, a camp follower of P.K. Dhumal, has been representing Thural for 5 consecutive terms, a constituency that no longer exists in the post-delimitation era. His first choice for the 2012 polls is Jawalamukhi because a large number of Panchayats belonging to Thural are now part of the former. The problem is that Jawalamukhi is the pocket-borough of Ramesh Chand an out and out Shanta Kumar man, who is absolutely reluctant to give up on his seat and instead wants to push Ravi to the newly carved out assembly segment of Dehra. To add twist to the tale, local BJP karyakartas in both Jawalamukhi and the erstwhile Thural narrate people’s water woes and believe that a change in face (or delimitation, for that matter) is not such a bad idea after all. In many ways the resolution of this Ravi v/s Ramesh face-off would tell us how much the Shanta-Dhumal truce, brought about last month in Chandigarh, is actually working on the ground and what chances does the BJP stand in the upcoming polls.

…To be concluded

Epilogue: History has a parallel existence in this time-warped state of Himachal Pradesh, if one wants to see a place where history is not just a written document but a living everyday truth, then this is the place one must visit. Traditions are not just a few generations old, not even a few centuries old, instead they are being carried forward for thousands of years. Old men in the village sitting around an angeethi on a rainy evening tell you tales of Raja Katoch or Raja Shambhara as if it all happened yesterday. Visiting the bazaars in the long sloped lanes of Kasauli or Bhavarna one realizes that they have been there, undisturbed, just like that, forever; traders have had their establishments since centuries… in fact, anything that is a few hundred years in age is considered to be young in the backdrop of the Himalayas. But Himachal Pradesh has most often been on the wrong side of the history. Muslim rulers had tried to conquer it for hundreds of years; during 18^th and 19^th century, the Gorkhas were hell bent on capturing this Himalayan abode from the north-east, from the southwest Ranjit Singh tried to expand Sikhism, from above north the Muslims of Kashmir and beyond tried to leave their indelible mark on this hill state. Despite of this huge onslaught from all the sides, the fact that Himachal has remained overwhelmingly Hindu is a remarkable achievement. The British too chose Shimla as their summer capital but were unable to spread their faith or culture among the local populace. It has got something to with the stubborn, never-give-up nature of these rugged hill people that they have managed to persist with their way of life for thousands of years. Even in the ancient (pre-historic) times, on two specific instances, Himachal was on the wrong side of the history. What are those two (pre) historic events? (Hint: The two great Hindu epics).

Important data and analyses, access to which was once dependent on how the applicant greased the babu‘s palm, are now by and large available to the farthest corner of the country equipped with internet connectivity.

Yet, how a senior op-ed writer of a credible daily like Business Standard could miss the most basic data a political analyst should know at the back of her hand is beyond one’s imagination. At the very least, when that basic data is relied on to make a critical point in the op-ed, it doesn’t require more than common sense to confirm the data from the official source to sustain one’s conclusion.

Writing on how “badly the Bharatiya Janata Party has lost the plot”, Aditi Phadnis undermined Modi’s victory in the Gujarat 2007 elections by asserting that even though Modi has won every election in Gujarat in the past 10 years, the BJP’s vote percentage in 2007 was 40 whereas Congress’s vote was 38.8 percent and Bahujan Samaj Party’s vote was 4%.

This calculation makes the difference between the BJP and the INC a mere 1.2% and, in numerical terms, a mere 2.62 lakh voters. The precursor to this data analysis by Phadnis is that the BJP has been assaulted so badly that it “hurts to laugh”. Modi is, as the op-ed title goes, one of the “lotus eaters of the BJP” because of which the BJP has been left in “dire straits”.

Except that the truth, as pointed out by Prasanna Vishwanathan on Twitter is that the BJP’s vote share was 49.12% and Congress’s vote share was 38.8%. This makes the difference between the two parties 10.32%. Moreover, the BSP’s vote-share was 2.6% rather than 4% which reduces BSP’s numerical votes by 3.06 lakh voters from Phadnis’s calculations.

A comprehensive statistical report on the 2007 Gujarat elections can be accessed on the Election Commission website here Page 13 of the document titled ‘Performance of Political Parties’ contains the percentage vote share.

This error comes on the heels of another recent gaffe on Gujarat’s growth data (in Business Standard again) which was rectified and highlighted by the ever alert social media.

So, what difference does a 9% rise in vote-share make? Firstly, it increases the difference between BJP and the number 2 party by a huge numerical margin. The actual difference is 24.30 lakh more voters who voted for the BJP, almost ten-times the difference that would have been if Phadnis’s figures were true.

Secondly, any party attaining a percentage vote-share close to 50% is considered almost invincible in our first-past-the-post voting system since it almost always ensures a safe majority. When the vote-share lingers around the 20-30% mark, as has often happened in the last two decades of coalition dharma, the outcome can be surprising.

For example, in both 1998 and 1999 Loksabha elections, the BJP got a lesser vote-share percentage (25.59% and 23.75% respectively) than the Congress (25.82% and 28.30% respectively), yet it won 182 seats in both, whereas the Congress won 141 in 1998 which, surprisingly, reduced to 114 in 1999 (though the vote share increased).

In the 1984 Lok Sabha elections which happened after Indira Gandhi’s assassination, Congress’s vote share was 49.10% (incidentally, same as BJP in Gujarat 2007) winning a whopping 404 out of 514 seats.

A whopping 49.12% vote-share, therefore, gives a party a very comfortable majority in so far as seats are concerned apart from the affirmation that out of every 100 who voted, 49 voted for the party.

That said, 2012 is, without doubt, going to be a significant watershed for Modi’s political growth. From being more of a “fence-sitter” in 2007, Gujarat’s ex-chief minister Keshubhai Patel is now positioning himself as a formidable political rival and has joined ex-BJP minister Gordhan Zadaphia and another ex-CM Suresh Mehta.

To what extent the rival faction’s influence works on the electorate remains to be seen. 2012 presents Modi with a tall challenge and also an opportunity like never before.

And it is undeniable that the more Gujarat Chief Minister – and the State’s most visible brand ambassador – Narendra Modi promotes his state and his government’s achievements and the more his entitlement to the country’s top post is spoken of, the greater scrutiny he is, and should rightfully be, subject to.

Though possibly damaging for the BJP, Keshubhai and Zadaphia scrutinizing and challenging Modi’s record and Modi defending his record in front of the voters’ court can only be good for democracy. But when the basis of the scrutiny by op-ed writers like Phadnis is a serious factual error, the irresistible inference is that an obsessive focus on the conclusion precedes and, therefore, prejudices a columnist’s duty of responsible fact-checking.

A little bit of research is all that it takes. In the information age of today, factual errors are unpardonable. Unless, of course, the conclusion is guided by motives other than objectivity.

The results, however, must be viewed in the context of two three significant points. Firstly that only BJP and Congress have contested the elections on Party symbols. BSP and SP have supported candidates in places but have generally been less than enthusiastic about these elections. The indifference of SP towards these elections can be gauged from the fact that Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has flown to Melbourne this very morning rather than take stock of results. Keen UP watchers would know that this has been the strategy of these two parties in the last three urban local body elections and that the assembly election results have still favoured them.

Secondly it is well known that urban voters generally favour BJP and that the Party had an almost similar showing in the last urban local body elections also. Thirdly, the 12 municipal corporations roughly constitute just about 90 of the 425 assembly seats. BJP won most of its assembly seats in the recently held assembly elections in urban areas only.  For a decent showing in 2014 Lok Sabha elections or even next assembly elections it would need to work hard in the rural areas.

There is no denying that the results categorically prove urban UP voter’s total disenchantment with Congress and their growing discontent with SP (many of the SP supported candidates have not even been able to come into direct contest) soon after the elections. The marked deterioration in law and order and general misgovernance are all over to see. The results also prove that BJP is still a force to reckon with in UP. All it needs is a galvanised cadre and a credible and inspiring leadership at the helm. But the Pundits will know, it’s a task easier said than done.

(Image Courtesy- The Hindu)

(Read Part 1 here)

November 1620, in the backdrop of the Dhauladhar, Kangra fort, Himachal Pradesh:

It was 14 months since the siege had begun; the impregnable fort was blockaded from all the sides, supplies had dried up a long time ago, the besieged were subsisting on boiled grass. The unconquerable Kangra fort which had never yielded to any Muslim sovereign in India; Mohammed Ghazni who had plundered every possible fort/temple/city of India had failed to capture the fort, the Lodhis and Tughlaqs had all failed to annexe it, even the powerful emperor Akbar had failed despite many attempts; at last it looked like falling into the hands of Jahangir. Finally, on 16^th November 1620 the inmates surrendered, for hunger and death had defeated them in the end. Although official records are sketchy, it is said that hundreds of men and women had lost their lives in that 14 month siege and the vast treasures collected in the fort fell into the hands of the imperialists. The Delhi sultanate had won and another part of Hindustan was captured.

A year after the capture, Jahangir visited the Kangra fort in the company of chief Qazi, Mir Adil and a number of other orthodox Muslim priests. In one of the most intolerant acts of his reign as the Baadshah of Hindustan, Jahangir ordered a cow to be slaughtered and a mosque to be built in the fort. More than the misery of the fallen fort, this blatant act of intolerance by the Delhi Sultan has left a scar for life on the face of Himachal.

Present day: June 7th 2012, A Congress rally in Kangra, Himachal Pradesh:

It is an unusually hot summer for Himachal Pradesh with temperatures raging in the mid-thirties and the relentless Sun hitting on the gathered crowds who have been brought from all over Kangra valley. All the major state leaders have gathered on the dais and are waiting patiently; the crowd is getting restless in the heat of the day. The rally was supposed to have started at noon and it is more than 4 hours now since they have all gathered, but there is no sign of the leader yet. This is an important rally for the Congress party as this is an election year and this is one of those occasions when the rank and file have the opportunity to meet their leaders and work out strategies for the upcoming polls. Finally, at around 4 PM, Anand Sharma walks into the milieu and quickly the speeches are done with and the rally is over just like that, in half an hour… it is the unbearable heat that the leader cannot take, you see.

A luncheon meeting is arranged at the venue for the leaders to mix with the hoi-polloi; this is a rare occasion for Mr Anand Sharma, the chief minister wannabe, to mingle with the rank and file. Lo and behold! Sharma ji does a Houdini act; he is too grand for an ordinary lunch, so he goes off to have a private lunch in the club Mahindra resort near Dharamshala. Anand Sharma typifies everything that is wrong with the Congress dynastic politics today. He shows us how the Delhi sultanate treats other territories beyond Noida and Gurgaon, with nothing but tokenism – no wonder federalism is going to be the one challenge that would finally decimate the Congress as it stands today. More than anything else he shows us how the dynasts treat the unwashed masses with utter contempt and how it is important to be in the good books of Sonia Gandhi to enjoy the office of power rather than cultivate the rank and file.

There is already talk among the Congress circles about how Ahmed Patel would install Anand Sharma on the chief minister’s mantle once the Congress party manages to win the state this year. There is enough evidence to arrive at this possibility if one looks at the Vijay Bahuguna experiment in the neighbouring hill state of Uttaranchal. Sharma neither has the support-base in the state nor the charisma to win an election, yet he might very well be imposed by the high-command on hapless Himachalis by the end of this year. Raje or Rajah Saheb, Vir Bhadra Singh as he is known across Himachal Pradesh, has tremendous clout among not only the rank and file of the party but also among the aam janata. It is said that Raje can ensure the victory or defeat of any party candidate just by lifting the receiver of his telephone (a euphemism that has lived on, even in the post-liberalized cell-phone era). But today in Himachal Congress, virtually a million mutinies are brewing. The people of the state were witness to one such internal war in the recently held and bitterly contested youth congress elections in the state when Vir Bhadra Singh was literally pitted against G.S. Bali, the Congress strong man and Pandit leader from Nagrota.

The eventual outcome of that contest ensured sustenance of the dynastic politics in the party by electing Rajah Saheb’s son to the post – so much for all the empty talk of inducting new blood into the party by the heir apparent – Congress ecosystem is too deeply entrenched in the dynastic politics to find a way out. That Youth Congress contest has left a bitter after taste; today when G.S Bali has embarked on a Rozgar Bachao Yatra across the state as a clarion call against the state government, he is being cold-shouldered by Vir Bhadra’s followers in every district, there by blunting the campaign completely.

For once, Vir Bhadra seems to have chewed more than what he can swallow, for on one hand he has the legal dilemma of corruption cases and on the other hand he has to fight a battle of wits with the likes of Anand Sharma and Kaul Singh Thakur, while he has also taken upon himself to cut leaders like G.S. Bali to size. If these internecine wars continue, then Congress would lose whatever little advantage it enjoys due to anti-incumbency. To be fair, the P.K. Dhumal government is not facing any great deal of anti-incumbency, but then, neither has it been a standout performer. To understand the anti-incumbency factor, one must understand the psycho-social nature of the Himachali society; Himachalis are a contented lot and do not have huge aspirations as such, yet they keep throwing out incumbent governments every 5 years. One of the primary reasons for this anti-incumbent nature of Himachal politics lies in its vast number of government employees who generally get weary of the incumbent government in about 5 years and start opposing it, this opposition eventually spirals out into a larger campaign … and the cycle continues every 5 years.

Generally, in the hill state, Congress governments are considered to be more accommodative towards government employees due to the party’s inherent socialistic tendencies whereas the BJP is perceived to be a bit more dogmatic in its approach to the government employees lobby. This image of the BJP has also been augmented by its tallest leader in the state in the 80’s and 90’s – Shantakumar who was also the CM – because of his confrontationist approach to the government employees lobby. Again, to be fair to the present BJP CM of the state, he is perceived as far more accommodative in nature and by and large the government employees lobby is willing to do business with him. Having said that, there are a few minor agitations that are shaping up across the state, for instance the HPSEB (electricity board) employees have started an agitation from the home district of P.K Dhumal (Hamirpur) or the grade 4 employees who are agitating for a pay hike. Fortunately, most of these rebellions are seen to be election year rumblings to gather their pound of flesh, at best; at worst they are perceived as Congress sponsored strikes to create an artificial ‘hawa’.

There is also a growing force of a large number of unemployed youth which is creating a bit of discontentment, this is again being addressed by the present government through a mix of Santa Clasusism and pragmatism – the recent announcement of special job schemes for the tribal populace is one such measure that could deliver votes. As long as these rebellions do not spiral out of control, anti-incumbency will remain in manageable proportions, but can P.K Dhumal actually defeat history and get an unprecedented second term?

To achieve such a historic mandate, BJP not only has to overcome the rumblings of anti-incumbency but also has to set its own house in order. The fault-lines in Himachal BJP are pretty well known to all, for they are formed mainly around two of the tallest leaders in the state; chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal and former chief minister Shanta Kumar have both been at cross-purposes for close to two decades. Although the latter’s influence is limited to the Kangra valley now, he still acts as the rallying point for all kinds of dissidence within the party. Fortunately for the BJP, the Sangh still has moral influence over the state unit and over both the satraps (unlike what is unfolding in Karnataka) thus maintaining the crucial balance.

Over the last few months there had been constant talk in the state about the trifurcation of Kangra district – a logical administrative decision no doubt, considering that the district is spread over 8397 Sq. kms and is home to 15 assembly segments (post de-limitation) – which is widely perceived to be a political manoeuvre by the Dhumal faction to reduce the influence of Shanta Kumar. Last week the elders in the party and the Sangh intervened to call for truce between both the warring factions and the chief minister gave an official statement to scrap the whole process of trifurcation, at least for the time-being. On June 30^th a two day meeting in Chandigarh of both the factions in the state BJP (facilitated by the Sangh leadership) has managed to bring some sort of unity, but will that percolate down to the grass-root levels remains to be seen. If BJP is to achieve a history defying victory in the state, then it has to burry all the internal differences to fight with total unity as there are 40 battlefield assembly segments that may well decide who forms the next government.

Battlefield Himachal Pradesh

*Assembly segments post delimitation

To be continued…

 Epilogue: Himachal Pradesh achieved statehood after a 23 year long nonviolent struggle in January 1971, which is as unique as its people. If the moving spirit behind this struggle was Dr Y.S. Parmar, the first chief minister, its salient feature was the purity of its methods. M.B. Lal, in his article, ‘Transition to statehood without agitation or violence’, published in The Statesman (New Delhi, 20 August 1970) had stated that Himachal had been granted statehood not because of the size or population, nor because of its area, but because of the need to preserve the distinctive cultural identity of its people. Himachal is a unique Hindu abode that must always be preserved. But for long it was just another union territory headed by a Lt. Governor and ruled by the undersecretaries of the central Home-Ministry who wielded immense power and patronage and were in no mood to let these territories slip out of their hands. What helped the cause of these Babus was the fact that Nehru looked down upon the state as a secondary citizen of the Himalayan club (in comparison to his personal favourite, Kashmir). Apart from Nehru, during the Indira regime, there was one towering personality in the Congress high command who  was a determined opponent of granting statehood to this hill state; my question this week to the readers of Centre Right India is, who was that leader in the Congress high command?

June 1999, near Point 5140, overlooking the Leh-Srinagar highway, Kargil:

A young television journalist visits the make-shift tent of an army company which is regrouping after successfully capturing point 5140 at 17000 feet above sea level. She is typically looking for some good sound bites from a successful campaign.

“After another bunker was captured… my company’s success signal was Yeh Dil Maange More!” quips the young Captain of the company.

That was the defining moment of India’s first television war. It also had a huge impact on the lives of the two protagonists involved in that television moment. That year, Barkha Dutt, the young NDTV journalist won the Chameli Devi Jain award and went on to become a celebrity news TV anchor and a powerful voice in India’s television circuit. Over the next decade she attained such fame and acquired so much power that almost exactly 10 years later, in June 2009, she was rumoured to have the power to influence the formation of union cabinet. Captain Vikram Batra went on to re-capture two more peaks for India and finally died in the wee hours of the morning of 7th July 1999, while trying to rescue an injured fellow officer at peak 4875. He was awarded the Param Vir Chakra for his extra-ordinary bravery and indubitable leadership.

Present day, near the agriculture university, Palampur, Himachal Pradesh:

Adjacent to the agriculture university in Palampur, on the busy arterial road at the Holta camp is an IOC fuel station that is almost always deserted, so much so that one is left to wonder if finally Indian citizens have decided that they can no longer afford petroleum products because of the sharp increase in the prices. But the heavy vehicular traffic around the fuel station presents a contrasting picture. The truth is that this IOC fuel station has gained tremendous notoriety among the local populace for selling adulterated fuel, so hardly anyone ever refills their vehicles at that place unless it is an emergency. It was awarded to the Batra family in lieu for the services that Captain Vikram Batra had rendered to the motherland. This IOC filling station in the sleepy town of Palampur symbolizes everything that is wrong with India today. It tells us how we treat our heroes with nothing but tokenism. It tells us how freebies and dole-schemes end up achieving the exact opposite of what they are intended for in the first place. Finally, it also tells us how a thriving underground fuel-economy running on the subsidized kerosene engine can damage the memory of a genuine war hero, while the silly left liberal intellectuals are happy with all the pilferages and have set a low bar of 30% subsidies actually reaching the intended populace.

Palampur has never shied away from sacrificing her young men for protecting the motherland. Vikram Batra was not the first or the only one to lay down his life in Kargil; for Saurabh Kalia also belonged to this small sleepy town of less than 30000 people; nor will he be the last. In fact, Dev Bhumi Himachal Pradesh has an un-severed umbilical cord with the Indian Army; every other family in the state has at least one of the members serving in the army.

The hill state is a congregation of small villages and towns with hardly any major urban centres, and every village is proud of its large posse of ex and serving army men. Actually, apart from the lobby of a large number of government employees, the army lobby is the strongest in the state, but has never been politically streamlined like in the neighbouring hill state of Uttaranchal. Even in electoral terms, just like Uttaranchal, caste and religion do not play a major role in the electoral politics of Himachal Pradesh. In any case, demographically, the hill state is overwhelmingly Hindu in nature – about 95%.

Electoral Landscape of Himachal Pradesh

HP assembly has 68 legislators and the state contributes 4 members to India’s parliament, hardly a bell-weather state in electoral terms. In fact, Himachal Pradesh is a minor blip in India’s electoral map, but this time it has acquired political significance beyond its electoral strength, for Himachal Pradesh will be going to polls with the state of Gujarat in the next few months. These elections might well decide the course of the next LS polls; Himachal is a must win state for both the national parties because if the BJP wins Gujarat, as it is widely expected, then it becomes utmost important for the Congress party to register a victory in the hill state to claim a psychological status quo in the electoral arena. In the event that the BJP wins Himachal, then it would be portrayed as a clean sweep for the opposition party and would further underline the anti-Congress mood in the country. According to one veteran BJP leader from the state, Narendra Modi’s road to Delhi starts from Ahmedabad but traverses through Shimla and Bangalore – Himachal Pradesh and probably Karnataka will decide whether NAMO and BJP can form the next government in Delhi or whether we are destined to have a loose-knit third front experiment supported by the Congress (it is almost a foregone conclusion that the UPA 2 will not last till the MP-Rajasthan-Delhi assembly elections).

Himachal elections are almost totally a bipolar affair, unlike the rest of India including the neighbouring hill state of Uttaranchal. Apart from an odd seat to BSP now and then or pockets of influence that the comrades have in the Shimla university campuses, it is a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP across the state. Himachal elections are also a relatively benign affair when compared to the use of muscle power and multi-Crore-Rupee capex prevalent in other states. This bipolar nature of the state does not make it any easier for the psephologists or the political analysts to predict electoral outcomes because of three major reasons;

1. The internecine battles within both the parties’ state units creating artificial multi-cornered fights –probably more prevalent in Congress; but BJP is no stranger to these phenomena. In fact, political pundits believe that if the Congress loses the election then it would be mostly because of the internal dynamics both at the macro level – as seen in the tussle between the likes of state party president Kaul Singh Thakur and five time chief minister Vir Bhadra Singh and union minister Anand Sharma – and at the micro level –as seen by the campaigns of the likes of G.S Bali (the Nagrota strongman).

2. Sub-regional disparity in voting pattern is pretty high considering that Himachal is a small state both geographically as well as demographically and gives a picture of uniformity at the very outset (95% Hindu). An outside observer would be thoroughly surprised at the sub-regional inconsistencies not only of the political kind but also in the socio-cultural realm – for instance, a foodie can tell you how deliciously different a Kangri-dham is from the dham of Mandi (dham is an exquisite cuisine served at festivals, social functions and marriages).

3. Relatively low victory margins. Roughly 32% of the seats – 22 assembly segments – had less than 2500 votes as victory margins, about 58% or 40 assembly segments were decided by less than 5000 votes in the 2007 assembly elections. Even a marginal shift in the vote share from one party to the other can make or break the prospects of who forms the government in Shimla and anti-incumbency does play a major role; which explains why the state has been vacillating between Congress and BJP every 5 years. Add delimitation to that concoction (although not as potent as in some other states) and you get an even more unpredictable cocktail.

Although there are various sub-regional discrepancies, mostly Himachal is a coherent state with reasonable homogeneity. For instance Pahari, that sing-song language with an inherently lyrical phonetic to it is spoken across the state with various dialects. A majority of the population consists of upper caste Kshatriyas/Rajputs/Thakurs – about 55%. There are various tribes that are listed under the Scheduled tribes like Gaddis who are a semi-nomadic, semi-agricultural, semi pastoral tribe and are considered as politically significant because they constitute roughly about 10 to 12% of the state’s population and are almost evenly spread. Strangely enough, Gaddis themselves are further divided into various sub-castes like Pandits (Brahminical), Kshatriyas and lower castes. There are other tribes too like the Pastoral tribes of Gujjars and Kinners, and then there are the Pangwals who are concentrated in the Chamba region and Lahaulis who have one of the simplest and most efficient divorce systems in the world. Then there is the politically significant community of businessmen of Soods and Baniyas who are as high as 20% in certain parts of the state. As per 2001 census only about 6-7% of the state falls in the category of Scheduled castes and less than 3% constitute other religions like Muslims & Christians. Socio-politically, Himachal Pradesh is divided into two parts;

• Old Himachal – consisting mainly of the original hill state of Shimla, Kullu and Mandi regions – is generally considered as a historical stronghold of the Congress party, now mainly because of Vir Bhadra Singh’s clout in the region

• New Himachal – consisting of hill and semi-hill regions from the erstwhile greater Punjab province like Kangra, Una, Hamirpur regions –is generally considered to be leaning towards BJP

Himachal Pradesh is made up of 12 districts;

Epilogue: There is one major socio-cultural differentiating factor that separates Himachal Pradesh from the rest of India, especially northern states like UP, Bihar and states to the south of Vindhyas like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh etc. It is a crucial factor that the state shares with her north-eastern sisters and has had a huge impact in the psycho-social development of her people. It is surprising that social-scientists have not produced any worthwhile commentary on this critical aspect that has created a virtual divide between the hill states and the rest of India. My question to the erudite readers of Centre Right India this week: can you point out what this fundamental socio-cultural dividing factor is?

On its own Kalyan Singh’s Jan Kranti Party (Rashtrawadi) might have just five runners up places in the tally to show up. Kalyan’s son Rajveer has lost Debai to Shri Bhagwan Sharma of Samajwadi Party by a mere 3000 votes.  Premlata Devi lost Atrauli, Kalyan’s home town, to VireshwarYadav of Samajwadi Party by 9000 votes and Mukesh Rajput lost Bhojpur constituency in Farrukhabad District to JamaluddinQureshi of SP once again by 17000 votes. But these figures in isolation make an incomplete reading of the picture. What is important is that the 3500 votes in Debai, 22000 votes in Atrauli and 28000 votes in Bhojpur which BJP candidates polled there would have helped these candidates sail through the posts.  The story was repeated in Amritpur constituency of Farrukhabad District, where Dr JitendraYadav lost to Narendra Singh Yadav of SP by 18000 votes. Here too the winning margin was less than the 29000 votes polled by Sushil Kumar Shakya of BJP.

Debai, Atrauli, Bhojpur and Amritpur aren’t the only seats where Kalyan Singh’s Jan Kranti Party and BJP’s votes put together add up to beat the winner. The story is repeated in Anupshahar,Bulandshahar, Kasganj, Amanpur, Kaimganj, and Farrukhabad assembly constituencies. Major SuneelDuttDwivedi , BJP candidate from Farrukhabad who lost to independent Vijay Singh by a mere 147 votes will certainly be ruing the 9405 votes polled by Mohan Agarwal of JKP. So would Virendra Singh Sirohi, BJP candidate from Bulandshahr who lost to MohdAleem Khan of BSP by 7000 votes. JKP’s Sanjeev Rama got more than 20000 votes in this constituency.

The division of votes brought in by Kalyan Singh isn’t a one way loss for BJP. It affects Kalyan more than the BJP, for out of the 10 seats where BJP’s votes added to those of Kalyan’s JKP are more than that of the winning candidate, in 7 seats it is Kalyan Singh’s candidates who fared better than BJP candidates.

Elections, however,as they say, are not merely about numbers adding up. They are also about the chemistry brought about by alignment of forces. In Kalyan’s case, with an ideologically similar electorate, coming together with BJP would have certainly given an impetus, more than a lazy psephologist’s academic exercise in addition begged for. In constituencies like Marhara (40000 plus and a runner up position), Barauli (30000 plus), Chharra (20000 plus), Aliganj (25000 plus,) Bilsi (17000 plus), Badaun (11000 plus), Agra Rural (10000 plus), Mainpuri (15000 plus) and Jalesar (13000plus), where the numbers even after adding to the BJP’s do not add up to be consequential, the proverbial chemistry could have still affected the outcome. A case in point is Chhibramau constituency in Kasganj district. SP, BSP and BJP candidates polled between 60000 to 70000 votes. Kalyan’s  5000 plus votes  could had the potential of changing the electoral dynamics.

Among the other constituencies where JKP polled 3000 to 5000 plus votes are Kannauj and Tirwa both Kannauj District, Hasanpur (JyotibaPhule Nagar), and Bhogaon in Mainpuri District and Jasrana in Firozabad.

That seems to have become the single most important issue over the past few days. Needless to say, the ‘he’ in question is Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who has not yet been seen in the election arena in the 5 poll bound states. Intriguingly, more than Narendra Modi or the BJP it is the media and sections of parties hostile to the BJP that are more worried about whether or not Modi will jump the poll bandwagon in poll bound Uttar Pradesh. This prompted eminent journalists to endlessly Tweet about whether a person aiming to be Prime Minister can afford to miss such a crucial campaign. Yet again, the media coverage Modi in or out of UP has overshadowed any constructive issue related to the corruption of the BSP, the poor track record and opportunism of the SP or the parachute politics of the Congress and its heir apparent.

It would be totally correct to say that a malicious attempt is being constantly made to portray Narendra Modi as somebody who is ‘above’ the party itself. Strangely, nobody seems to question Rahul Gandhi’s obvious highhandedness that often puts his own party and the Prime Minister in a spot. But what Modi does (or does not do) is always interpreted as a challenge to the party. It is very sad that this is the case. Right from his association with the ABVP, RSS and later on the BJP, Narendra Modi has diligently and dutifully followed whatever the party has asked him to do even performing it with great efficiency. When factions of the BJP were squabbling over posts and Chief Minister-ship through the 1990s Narendra Modi dutifully remained aloof from such politics, preferring to work for the Party across the country thus winning the trust of every senior leader of the BJP. It is renunciation more than arrogance that defines Narendra Modi but it’s a pity the media prefers to hide it.

In context of the poll bound states, one must respect the decision-making mechanism of every party. Narendra Modi may well be on the way to Uttar Pradesh as the campaign unfolds but the media has preferred to take the easier way out and jump to incorrect conclusions. It has escaped the eye of the mainstream media (perhaps deliberately) that a team fro the BJP Minority Cell has set sail for UP where they will address their counterparts on the favorable development of minorities in Gujarat. In any case, Rahul Gandhi addressed scores of rallies in Bihar and Tamil Nadu but what was the result? Be rest assured even one rally by Modi will give more stunning results than the dozens of ‘rallies’ India’s first family undertakes in any poll bound state. It would have been better if the media jumped to conclusions after the elections not before the first vote is case.

On the entire issue of Modi and campaign is UP I foresee four possible permutations. If Modi went there and the party won it would be dubbed as the ‘collective hard work of the BJP Gen Next in which one Narendra Modi played a minor role.’ If Modi went and the BJP performed poorly it would read, ‘Modi campaign costs BJP dear in UP.’ Now the scenarios if Modi does not go- if he does not go and the party does well its, ‘BJP shows Modi his place, shows he is not a force outside Gujarat’ and if he does not go and the BJP performs poorly the discourse is ‘Modi’s selfish attitude costs the BJP the state of UP.’ No one will care to write that almost all candidates wanted Narendra Modi to canvass in their seat- such is the popularity of the man!

Even reports about Modi not campaigning in Punjab or Uttarakhand were marked with highest level of immaturity and falsification of facts. It was very conveniently forgotten that with a series of Sadbhavana fasts in his own state and the Republic Day celebrations, coming out of Gujarat could have been difficult for Narendra Modi. At the same time why hasn’t the media asked whether say an Oommen Chandy or a Tarun Gogoi campaigned in any of the poll bound states? The epithet of a campaign shirker has been mischievously reserved for Narendra Modi at a time when nobody even knows the complete facts.

It is high time the media realizes that elections in UP are much more than Narendra Modi- there is widespread corruption and stagnation in UP due to the votebank politics of the Congress, the arrogance of BSP and the confused SP. It is high time we discuss the manifestos and vision statements of the parties rather than who is not campaigning and why. The fact remains that Modi does not need EC guidelines to be called a ‘star campaigner’- he was and will remain the star campaigner for the party. Who goes to campaign where is the decision of the party and both Modi and the BJP will act keeping in mind the best interests of the party. In the meanwhile, the media and the Congress High Command should listen to their Gujarat Unit and their senior most CM Sheila Dixit on what Narendra Modi is really all about- a development oriented mass leader with a clear vision for India!

Yash Gandhi is a friend of CRI and also blogs at http://gandhiyash.blogspot.in/2012/02/