Delhi opinion poll-2013

Are you satisfied with the performance of the Congress government in the state?

Yes

31%

No

48%

Do you think Sheila Dixit Government deserves another chance?

Yes

34%

No

43%

How do you rate the performance of the state government?

Excellent

7%

Good

16%

Average

33%

Poor

19%

 

What are the issues which affect you the most as a voter?

Price Rise/Inflation

31%

Crime

25%

Corruption

23%

Unemployment

8%

 

Are you satisfied with the performance of UPA Government at Center?

No

62%

Yes

21%

 

 


Report card of the State Government

Issue

Improved

Decreased/

Deteriorated

Remain the same

Condition of roads

38%

29%

15%

Employment Opportunities

27%

41%

18%

Corruption

47%

19%

24%

Condition of public hospitals and medical facilities

27%

25%

28%

Electricity Supply

31%

37%

20%

Safety of women

20%

44%

27%

Quality of education

32%

30%

30%

Transportation facilities

29%

23%

32%

 

What are the factors /issues which could influence your voting preference?

Performance of State Government

31%

Performance of sitting MLA

19%

Performance of Chief Minister

11%

Performance of Union Government

17%

Caste of the candidate

12%

 

Do you think Manmohan Singh needs to be re-elected?

No

67%

Yes

19%

 

 

 

Do you give weight age to party or leader while voting in election?

Leader

29%

Party

25%

Both

36%


Electoral preferences of various social/demographic groups

Category

BJP

Congress

AAP

BSP

Young Voters

35%

23%

22%

11%

College Goers

36%

25%

23%

7%

Uneducated

26%

35%

12%

14%

Women voters

32%

25%

15%

12%

Middle aged men

29%

27%

17%

13%

Migrant Labour

23%

37%

9%

16%

Slum Dwellers

26%

33%

13%

15%

 

*Congress has edge among uneducated, slum dwellers and migrant voters while BJP more popular among young voters, college goers, trading community and women voters

*Aam Admi Party is preferred by significant chunk of educated youth and middle aged men and a section of slum dwellers.

*Urban and working women preferring BJP compared to Congress

 

 

Who do you prefer as the next Prime Minister of India?

Narendra Modi

39%

Rahul Gandhi

16%

Manmohan Singh

13%

Mayawati

8%

Mamatha Banerjee

4%

Mulayam Singh Yadav

4%

Jayalalitha

3%

Nitish Kumar

2%

Chidambaram

2%

 

*Modi is the most preferred choice for PM post at 39% followed at distant second by Rahul Gandhi.Modi more popular among first time voters, young college goers, women and middle class


 

 

Party Vote share

(2008)

Seat share

(2008)

Vote Share

(2013)

Seat Share

(2013)

BJP 36.34% 23

35%(-1.34)

33(+10)
Congress 40.31% 43

34%(-6.31)

30(-13)
BSP 14.05% 2

13%(-1.05)

2(0)
AAP - -

10%(+9)

3(+3)
Others 9.3% 2

8%(-1.3)

2(0)

 

Vote Share projection for 2013 Assembly election


 

 

 

 

 

Seat projection for 2013 Assembly elections


*Swing of 6.31% of vote away from Congress compared to 2008 Assembly election.The party is likely to lose 13 seats from 2008 elections. Nearly a third of sitting Congress MLA’s facing anti incumbency.

*BJP largely retaining its core vote but the party vote share is likely to decline to 34% from 35.14%.The party is gaining 10 seats compared to 2008.

*AAP is likely to poll close to 10% vote but could end up behind BSP which is holding onto its traditional vote.

*Sheila Dikshit remains most popular choice for CM post.

*BJP’s inability to project a strong CM face is unlikely to significantly impact its poll prospects as the party is beneficiary of the anti incumbency sentiment.

*Performance of state government relatively positive when compared with that of the Union Government

*Poor ratings of the Union Government likely to impact Congress performance in the upcoming election.

*BJP vote share could go up by 6% in Lok Sabha election compared to the Assembly elections

*Close race between BJP and Congress but slight edge for BJP.

 

Are you satisfied with the performance of your sitting MLA?

Yes

42%

No

47%

 

Satisfaction index of sitting MLA’s of major parties

BJP

0.7

Congress

0.5

BSP

0.8

 

Seat and Vote share for Lok Sabha Election

Party

Vote share

(2013)

Seat Share

(2013)

BJP

41%

5

Congress

33%

2

BSP

9%

-

AAP

5%

-


Do you agree that the hike in electricity tariff is justified?

No

61%

Yes

22%

 

 

 

 

 

Vote Share Projection for Lok Sabha election


 

Which party do you think can provide better governance?

BJP

32%

Congress

29%

Aam Admi Party

18%

BSP

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Seat share projections for Lok Sabha election

    

 

Which party do you think can bring down price rise and food inflation?

BJP

34%

Congress

25%

AAP

19%

 

Whom do you prefer as the Chief Minister of Delhi?

Sheila Dikshit

22%

Arvind Kejriwal

16%

Vijay Goel

14%

Dr.Harshvardhan

9%

Ajay Maken

5%

Smriti Irani

3%

 

 

    

 

*Shiela Dikshit remains the popular choice for Chief Ministerial seat at 22% followed by Arvind Kejriwal at 16%.Vijay Goel is the preferred choice from BJP for CM post.36% of BJP voters want Vijay Goel as next CM of Delhi

 

 

*The field work for the survey was carried from September 2nd to 7th

*A total of 823 respondents from 21 Assembly constituencies spread over 73 polling booths were interviewed during the field work.

*The respondents were provided with questionnaire in both English and Hindi depending upon the ease of convenience of understanding.

*The survey sample has cross sectional representation of the major caste and social groups proportional to the 2001 census figures.

*If the fugues don’t add upto 100% its due to the respondents either favoring options not given in the questionnaire and some having no opinion on the question posed.

*The margin of the error is +/- 3%

(Image Courtesy- India Today)

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