It is the season of politics, with elections of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh round the corner and the gossips of next general elections makes it more interesting on how Congress (UPA) and BJP (NDA) are going to plan their approach for future.
I being a political watcher and who observes on how political parties are preparing and exuding themselves for the upcoming general elections, I decided to present my views. Of Course, I warn you that whatever you read here might turn out to be the other way when the results are there for everyone to see.
I don’t know what the darling scientific tools of psephologists are, but with my limited knowledge and observation, I can tell that Congress (UPA) has more chances to form the next Government and BJP (NDA) has minimal chances to come to power, going by the observations till today. This observation of mine may come as a surprise to many of the Anti-Congress and Pro-BJP supporters but that seems to be the reality till now. I would explain you how I reached this conclusion bit by bit as the size of this post progresses.
The list of corruption scandals of the UPA government is similar to a French menu of a 5 star restaurant with a ‘Bon Appetit’ at the end of every scam and signaling us that there is a better one coming soon. It’s a bit of mystery to common man that how can the most corrupt government in the history of India can capture power again which is constantly accompanied by poor governance. I am putting some thoughts, which you may agree to or totally disagree with, but you definitely cannot dismiss their role in the next general elections.
The so called image makeover of UPA:
If you list out the events after the phrase ‘Image Makeover’ was being repeated in news channels, it is quite clear that the government was desperately out of options.
- Animal Spirits.
- Change of Finance Minister.
- FDI in Retail.
- Reforms in Pension and Insurance.
- Manmohan Singh doesn’t buckle under coalition pressure.
The above list is expandable and it’s just not about reforms, but it’s less about reforms and more about 2013-14 general elections. We will soon know why it’s just a red herring.
UPA 2.0 vs. Next Gen UPA:
This is funny, but the Congress party has many hopes on this point. After the reforms have done what they were intended to do, the Congress party is going to place its pawns strategically of opening the soft anti-incumbency towards its own leader, which is Manmohan Singh. It is very much possible that the young prince, dynamic leader and youth icon and of the Gandhi Dynasty will be pushed to take over the charge of the grand old party by making Manmohan Singh the scapegoat. Yes, it would be Old Congress vs. Youth Congress where Rahul Gandhi will be painted with the brush of freshness, will be shown as the crusader of ‘whatever’ and the changing face of Congress and in parallel there would be some cabinet reshuffles with some youth MP’s taking charge of some cabinet berths which are eventually controlled from 10 Janpath. I am quite sure that you must be wondering how the congress will do such untypical stuff? Simple Answer: They have the Indian Media.
Morphean influence of Secularism:
This has been the efficient tool for Congress and smartly used by smaller parties to acquire power. For example, Mulayam Singh is against FDI in retail but supports the UPA government to keep communal forces away. Nitish Kumar would repeat his same old bhajan of secularism, few other parties would follow the same line and all this would be constantly telecasted in the media. We will have senseless debates on how one candidate for PM is more deserving and how other others do not deserve to be a Prime Minister.
Relying on the most important and trusted ally:
The statement, ‘We want to keep the communal forces away’ doesn’t come automatically. The ruling party relies on its most important and trusted ally which is the Congress Bureau of Investigation (CBI). Leaders of smaller parties would be admonished and intimidated with the crucial ally of the government. The seat sharing during elections would be finalized, money sharing would be done, criminal cases will take different turn, etc… all these are only possible with the help of this important and trusted ally.
New algebra of collations:
The congress would throw a bone to attract parties, votes and leaders into their family. TRS may get merged into congress, YSR Congress may support the Congress (Depends on how he is treated by the important ally). SP and BSP can support the same party to keep the important ally at bay. The Congress suddenly feels an itch in its left armpit and tries to appease our desi comrades. Of course, everyone would be using their favorite word ‘Secularism’ and favorite phrase ‘…to keep communal forces away’.
Clever Strategy and not missing advantages:
A state like Karnataka which accounts 28 MP seats cannot be ignored by this grand old party. The handling the Yeddyurappa factor would be a challenge, but congress has been in such business for a long time. After taking care of the Telangana region with the help of TRS, the art of pacification can be seen when YSR Congress party is approached to cover the votes of Andhra and Rayalaseema. With the popularity of Mamta Benarjee on the rise, even after the hit jobs by their friends in media – the congress would make some space for a decent arrangement in West Bengal which has 42 seats.
Orgasmic Socialist Dreams of NAC:
Here comes the ideological promiscuity, jokes are often hurled at congress party that it doesn’t have an ideology after the phase of Nehruvian Socialism but what many people don’t understand is that it is their greatest weapon during elections and the extra step of ideological promiscuity makes the crucial difference between them and others.
For instance, the first point which I mentioned on why UPA has a chance to win the next general election is ‘The so called image makeover of UPA’ where the government tried to come out of laziness, bad governance, ineffective leadership etc… by allowing the reforms and preaching us that they are pro-reform party. The big joke of the recent reforms is that it is not intended to repair our bad economy or to have a liberal outlook towards policy making but the intention of the reforms is exactly opposite of most of us think.
To fulfill the orgasmic dreams of Sonia’s NAC, one needs money, hell lot of money, actually you need a F*&^%$g lot of money, who will give that money? The middle class man is openly robbed for the last 6 years; the bunkum schemes like MGNREGA etc… were paid by the honest taxpayer’s money. To win elections, you need popular schemes and there is no scarcity of such ideas as they are always overflowing from the brilliant minds of NAC, their dreams coincide with the popular schemes and ambitions of the Congress party.
Mark my words, the money which we are getting through these reforms will be diverted to accommodate some garbage bills like Food Security Bill etc… and ultimately it’s the common man who always have high hopes on reforms would be screwed.
Note: All the above mentioned things cannot happen without the help of the India Media.
So, where does the BJP (NDA) stand in all of these?
Broken Alliances, bad management of state units, confusion on various issues, lack of strategy to counter the gimmicks played by congress with the help of media, inability to convince the middle class, no future path, etc.. are some of the few problems faced by BJP.
As I said in one of previous post, India needs a man who is capable and worthy to take the power of Prime Minister, ignore allies like JD(U) if you don’t have ideas to tackle them, take a chance even if the possibilities are less but by standing firm on your decisions, take audacious decisions if you have to, solve the inner fights in the party, clear the mess in Karnataka and declare the deserving leader as your Prime Ministerial candidate for the next general election. I see only one way in which the BJP (NDA) can come back to power and every other option would only limit their chances of making an impact in the political spectrum. All my suggestions can be given by any bloke and if they are adapted properly there is a good chance of losing the elections as they have to confront the previous mentioned points regarding the congress party. Let the game begin! Satyamev Jayate.
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