I had some free time recently and was trying to do some number-crunching around the likely outcome of the UP elections. There was a very interesting article by R.Jagannathan on Firstpost on “UP poll will decide which party is irrelevant: Congress or BJP”. In it he gives the demographic break-up of the UP electorate as follows:
Upper Castes: 11.00%
Middle Castes: 4.50%
I started “guestimating” what proportion of this vote could go to which party. My voting trend premises were as follows:
Dalits are largely sticking with BSP, but also going to go with the Congress and SP.
Upper castes are polarized in BJP’s favour, but also going to go to Congress.
Muslims are splintering between SP and Congress, but also going to BSP.
OBCs are sharply polarised in favour of BJP, but will also go to SP and Congress.
Middle Castes are largely going to go with BJP and Congress, but also to SP.
Others are largely split between BJP and Congress (largely middle classes and youth)
Ignored the “other parties” for now (like Apna Dal, Peace Party, Bundelkhand Congress, etc) although in few areas they will have a significant impact.
I have assumed the following break-up of the vote across the four main parties:
Category BSP SP BJP INC
Dalits 70% 10% 5% 15%
Upper Castes 5% 5% 65% 25%
Muslims 20% 50% 5% 25%
OBCs: 15% 25% 40% 20%
Middle Castes 10% 20% 45% 25%
Others 10% 20% 40% 30%
Multiplying the break-up by this composition to get an overall vote-share, this is what it looks like:
BSP : 27%
SP : 23%
BJP : 28%
INC : 21%
If the final vote percentages turn out like this, then given that BSP’s vote is more regionally concentrated, while BJP’s is more distributed, this could translate into seats turning out as follows:
BSP : 121
SP : 52
BJP : 169
INC : 44
In as much as it sounds impossible to believe, but we could be seeing a BJP wave in terms of number of votes and seats. I can’t fault the logic and the assumptions. Please help me puncture this logic, if you can.
Perhaps Gadkari know this, which is why he is throwing deceptive hints about the “dark horse”!